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Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 00:00

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

UPCOMING

Huachipato

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.2%1-19.5%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-16.9%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-15.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 65.8% 1.52 -14.0%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 21.5% 17.9% 5.60 +12.2%

Over 2.5 62.0% 60.6% 1.65 +2.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.5% 2.60 +2.2%

BTTS 58.9% 59.9% 1.67 -1.6%

Home O1.5 59.6% 64.5% 1.55 -7.6%

Away O1.5 32.6% 28.6% 3.50 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.9%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coquimbo Unido2.1

Huachipato1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.33

HUACHIPATO · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Coquimbo Unido (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -14.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Huachipato (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coquimbo Unido face Huachipato in Chile - Primera División on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coquimbo Unido a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Huachipato 22%, so Coquimbo Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Coquimbo Unido and 1.0 for Huachipato (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Huachipato. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.1%.

Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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