Today / England - National League / Altrincham vs Eastleigh

Altrincham vs Eastleigh Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Altrincham

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

UPCOMING

Eastleigh

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.1%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 48.8% 2.05 -15.8%

Draw 26.3% 29.0% 3.45 -5.6%

Away win 32.5% 32.3% 3.10 +0.8%

Over 2.5 52.1% 56.5% 1.77 -7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.4%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 39.6% 51.8% 1.93 -23.6%

Away O1.5 34.2% 39.2% 2.55 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altrincham1.4

Eastleigh1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTRINCHAM · PPG 1.61

EASTLEIGH · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Altrincham (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -15.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.6%

Eastleigh (A) 32.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altrincham face Eastleigh in England - National League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altrincham a 41% chance, the draw 26% and Eastleigh 33%, so Altrincham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Altrincham and 1.2 for Eastleigh (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altrincham are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.27 for Eastleigh. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Altrincham vs Eastleigh Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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