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Carlisle vs Scunthorpe Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Carlisle

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Scunthorpe

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.9%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.6%1-19.7%1-26.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.9%3-16.3%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 58.8% 1.70 -13.1%

Draw 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

Away win 26.2% 23.8% 4.20 +6.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 60.6% 1.65 +5.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.5% 2.60 +4.5%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 60.6% 1.65 -7.9%

Away O1.5 38.2% 34.7% 2.88 +10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carlisle2.0

Scunthorpe1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CARLISLE · PPG 1.77

SCUNTHORPE · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Carlisle (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -13.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.3%

Scunthorpe (A) 26.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carlisle face Scunthorpe in England - National League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carlisle a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Scunthorpe 26%, so Carlisle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Carlisle and 1.3 for Scunthorpe (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carlisle are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.15 for Scunthorpe. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 4-2.

Carlisle vs Scunthorpe Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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