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Woking vs Southend Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Woking

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Southend

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.5%0-26.8%0-33.7%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.0%1-111.3%1-29.1%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-17.5%2-26.1%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.1%3-13.3%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

Draw 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Away win 44.3% 47.6% 2.10 -7.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.1% 1.75 +4.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 35.1% 2.85 +3.7%

BTTS 59.4% 63.7% 1.57 -6.7%

Home O1.5 38.9% 40.0% 2.50 -2.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.8% 1.93 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.4%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Woking1.3

Southend1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WOKING · PPG 1.43

SOUTHEND · PPG 1.91

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Woking (H) 31.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

Southend (A) 44.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Woking face Southend in England - National League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Woking a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Southend 44%, so Southend are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Woking and 1.6 for Southend (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Woking are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.91 for Southend. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Woking vs Southend Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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