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Yeovil Town vs Tamworth Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Yeovil Town

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tamworth

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.6%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.8%1-19.5%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.5%3-16.7%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 46.5% 2.15 +17.4%

Draw 22.0% 29.0% 3.45 -14.5%

Away win 23.4% 33.9% 2.95 -18.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 58.8% 1.70 +8.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 36.4% 2.75 +11.4%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 59.4% 51.8% 1.93 +14.6%

Away O1.5 36.8% 42.6% 2.35 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yeovil Town2.1

Tamworth1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

YEOVIL TOWN · PPG 1.59

TAMWORTH · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yeovil Town (H) 54.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +17.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.5%

Tamworth (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yeovil Town face Tamworth in England - National League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yeovil Town a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Tamworth 23%, so Yeovil Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Yeovil Town and 1.2 for Tamworth (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yeovil Town are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.00 for Tamworth. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +35.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Yeovil Town vs Tamworth Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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