Today / England - National League / FC Halifax Town vs Hartlepool

FC Halifax Town vs Hartlepool Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45

FC Halifax Town

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hartlepool

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.1%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.4%1-27.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.2%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 40.0% 2.50 +13.5%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 30.1% 40.0% 2.50 -24.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 56.5% 1.77 +5.5%

Over 3.5 36.1% 33.9% 2.95 +6.5%

BTTS 59.0% 62.5% 1.60 -5.6%

Home O1.5 48.1% 45.5% 2.20 +5.8%

Away O1.5 38.1% 45.5% 2.20 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 1–0✓ 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Halifax Town1.6

Hartlepool1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC HALIFAX TOWN · PPG 1.55

HARTLEPOOL · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Halifax Town (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +13.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

Hartlepool (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Halifax Town face Hartlepool in England - National League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Halifax Town a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Hartlepool 30%, so FC Halifax Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Halifax Town and 1.3 for Hartlepool (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Halifax Town are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.43 for Hartlepool. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Halifax Town vs Hartlepool Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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