Today / England - National League / Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone

Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Sutton Utd

PPG 1.74 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wealdstone

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-111.0%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 22.7% 29.0% 3.45 -13.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.2%

BTTS 52.9% 62.5% 1.60 -15.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Away O1.5 31.2% 37.7% 2.65 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutton Utd1.8

Wealdstone1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTTON UTD · PPG 1.74

WEALDSTONE · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sutton Utd (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +0.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Wealdstone (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutton Utd face Wealdstone in England - National League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutton Utd a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Wealdstone 23%, so Sutton Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sutton Utd and 1.0 for Wealdstone (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutton Utd are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 0.88 for Wealdstone. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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