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Eastleigh vs Aldershot Town Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Eastleigh

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aldershot Town

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.7%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.5%1-111.8%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 45.5% 2.20 -0.3%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 30.1% 37.0% 2.70 -18.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 39.2% 2.55 -19.2%

BTTS 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Home O1.5 43.4% 52.4% 1.91 -17.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 46.5% 2.15 -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastleigh1.5

Aldershot Town1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTLEIGH · PPG 1.78

ALDERSHOT TOWN · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eastleigh (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Aldershot Town (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastleigh face Aldershot Town in England - National League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastleigh a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Aldershot Town 30%, so Eastleigh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eastleigh and 1.2 for Aldershot Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastleigh are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.45 for Aldershot Town. This match finished 1-1.

Eastleigh vs Aldershot Town Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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