Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Adamstown R. vs Weston Bears

Adamstown R. vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 05:00

Adamstown R.

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Weston Bears

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 86.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+42.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.9%0-27.2%0-38.7%0-4+20.5%1 1-00.9%1-13.5%1-26.3%1-37.7%1-4+18.1%2 2-00.4%2-11.5%2-22.8%2-33.4%2-4+8.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.8%3-31.0%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.0% 25.0% 4.00 -80.0%

Draw 8.5% 25.6% 3.90 -66.8%

Away win 86.5% 60.6% 1.65 +42.7%

Over 2.5 83.0% — — —

Over 3.5 66.3% — — —

BTTS 57.0% 69.4% 1.44 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob57.0%

A 86% / xG 0.9-3.6 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.7%

#2 0–4 8.0%

#3 1–3 7.7%

#4 0–2✓ 7.2%

#5 1–4 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adamstown R.0.9

Weston Bears3.6

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 66.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 0.33

WESTON BEARS · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Adamstown R. (H) 5.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -80.0%

Draw 8.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -66.8%

Weston Bears (A) 86.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +42.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adamstown R. face Weston Bears in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adamstown R. a 5% chance, the draw 9% and Weston Bears 87%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Adamstown R. and 3.6 for Weston Bears (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adamstown R. are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 3.00 for Weston Bears. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Adamstown R. vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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