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Albacete vs Real Sociedad II Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Albacete

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Real Sociedad II

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.6%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.0%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-14.9%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 55.2% 1.81 -15.7%

Draw 28.2% 28.6% 3.50 -0.8%

Away win 25.1% 23.3% 4.30 +4.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Over 3.5 28.4% 34.5% 2.90 -10.6%

BTTS 50.9% 59.9% 1.67 -15.0%

Home O1.5 46.6% 56.5% 1.77 -17.5%

Away O1.5 33.5% 32.3% 3.10 +3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.2%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albacete1.6

Real Sociedad II1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBACETE · PPG 1.49

REAL SOCIEDAD II · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Albacete (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -15.7%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.8%

Real Sociedad II (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albacete face Real Sociedad II in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albacete a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Real Sociedad II 25%, so Albacete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Albacete and 1.1 for Real Sociedad II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albacete are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.08 for Real Sociedad II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Albacete vs Real Sociedad II Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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