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Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:15

Olimpija Ljubljana

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maribor

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-114.9%0-27.9%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.7%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.7%2-16.1%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.7%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 31.7% 3.15 -1.4%

Draw 33.4% 29.4% 3.40 +13.6%

Away win 35.2% 48.1% 2.08 -26.8%

Over 2.5 36.7% 54.6% 1.83 -32.8%

Over 3.5 18.1% 32.3% 3.10 -26.3%

BTTS 46.4% 60.6% 1.65 -23.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 37.0% 2.70 -18.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 48.8% 2.05 -31.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.4%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpija Ljubljana0.9

Maribor1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA · PPG 1.62

MARIBOR · PPG 1.24

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpija Ljubljana (H) 31.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -1.4%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +13.6%

Maribor (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpija Ljubljana face Maribor in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpija Ljubljana a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Maribor 35%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.1 for Maribor (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpija Ljubljana are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.24 for Maribor.

Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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