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Mura vs Radomlje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:00

Mura

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Radomlje

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.9%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.2%1-19.6%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.7%3-16.3%3-24.2%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.9%4+-23.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 51.5% 1.94 -7.1%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 27.6% 29.9% 3.35 -4.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 57.8% 1.73 +2.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 35.7% 2.80 +2.2%

BTTS 56.1% 62.5% 1.60 -10.2%

Home O1.5 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Away O1.5 42.6% 37.7% 2.65 +12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.1%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mura2.0

Radomlje1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MURA · PPG 1.80

RADOMLJE · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mura (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -7.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

Radomlje (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mura face Radomlje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mura a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Radomlje 28%, so Mura are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Mura and 1.3 for Radomlje (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mura are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.19 for Radomlje. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Mura vs Radomlje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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