Today / France - Ligue 2 / Nancy vs Dunkerque

Nancy vs Dunkerque Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Nancy

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dunkerque

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.0%0-27.4%0-33.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.4%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 40.0% 2.50 -16.8%

Draw 25.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.8%

Away win 41.6% 37.0% 2.70 +12.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Over 3.5 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 32.8% 44.4% 2.25 -26.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 42.6% 2.35 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nancy1.2

Dunkerque1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NANCY · PPG 1.01

DUNKERQUE · PPG 1.28

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nancy (H) 33.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.8%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.8%

Dunkerque (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nancy face Dunkerque in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nancy a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Dunkerque 42%, so Dunkerque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nancy and 1.5 for Dunkerque (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nancy are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.28 for Dunkerque. This match finished 2-0.

Nancy vs Dunkerque Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Ligue 2 Predictions