Today / France - Ligue 2 / Rodez vs PAU

Rodez vs PAU Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Rodez

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

PAU

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.7%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.9%1-110.6%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-16.1%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Draw 23.4% 27.0% 3.70 -8.1%

Away win 23.6% 24.4% 4.10 -1.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 3.5 36.5% 35.7% 2.80 +2.2%

BTTS 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% 56.5% 1.77 -0.4%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rodez1.9

PAU1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RODEZ · PPG 1.92

PAU · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rodez (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.1%

PAU (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rodez face PAU in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rodez a 53% chance, the draw 23% and PAU 24%, so Rodez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rodez and 1.1 for PAU (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rodez are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.73 for PAU. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Rodez vs PAU Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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