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Rågsved vs Haninge Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Rågsved

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

UPCOMING

Haninge

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.9%0-21.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-02.6%1-15.0%1-24.9%1-33.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.5%2-16.8%2-26.6%2-34.3%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.2%3-16.1%3-26.0%3-33.9%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-18.0%4+-27.8%4+-35.0%4+-4+3.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 40.0% 2.50 +27.3%

Draw 19.3% 26.0% 3.85 -15.4%

Away win 29.8% 43.5% 2.30 -18.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 78.1% 1.28 -7.1%

Over 3.5 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

BTTS 69.7% 80.0% 1.25 -12.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 62.5% 1.60 +6.1%

Away O1.5 58.3% 64.5% 1.55 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.7%

H 51% / xG 2.7-1.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 3–1 6.1%

#4 1–1 5.0%

#5 3–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rågsved2.7

Haninge1.9

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RÅGSVED · PPG 1.80

HANINGE · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rågsved (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +27.3%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -15.4%

Haninge (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rågsved face Haninge in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rågsved a 51% chance, the draw 19% and Haninge 30%, so Rågsved are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Rågsved and 1.9 for Haninge (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rågsved are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.67 for Haninge. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.1%.

Rågsved vs Haninge Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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