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Eker Örebro vs Fittja Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Eker Örebro

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fittja

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.3%0-23.9%0-33.1%0-4+3.2%1 1-02.7%1-16.3%1-27.4%1-35.8%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.5%2-16.0%2-27.1%2-35.6%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.6%3-13.8%3-24.5%3-33.6%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.6%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 35.8% 2.79 -12.1%

Draw 21.6% 25.6% 3.90 -9.5%

Away win 46.9% 49.8% 2.01 -5.7%

Over 2.5 67.3% 78.1% 1.28 -13.9%

Over 3.5 47.6% 54.9% 1.82 -13.4%

BTTS 64.1% 76.9% 1.30 -16.7%

Home O1.5 54.9% 54.9% 1.82 -0.1%

Away O1.5 65.4% 64.9% 1.54 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob64.1%

A 47% / xG 1.9-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.0%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eker Örebro1.9

Fittja2.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EKER ÖREBRO · PPG 1.25

FITTJA · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eker Örebro (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.79 · IMPLIED 35.8% EV -12.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.5%

Fittja (A) 46.9%

ODDS 2.01 · IMPLIED 49.8% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eker Örebro face Fittja in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eker Örebro a 32% chance, the draw 22% and Fittja 47%, so Fittja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Eker Örebro and 2.4 for Fittja (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eker Örebro are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Fittja. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Eker Örebro vs Fittja Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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