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Haninge vs Nyköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Haninge

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nyköping

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.2%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.6%1-110.1%1-26.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.3%3-16.3%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Draw 23.2% 26.3% 3.80 -7.1%

Away win 24.2% 34.5% 2.90 -17.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 74.1% 1.35 -19.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 54.1% 1.85 -32.3%

BTTS 60.3% 76.9% 1.30 -21.6%

Home O1.5 54.9% 65.4% 1.53 -16.0%

Away O1.5 35.8% 54.6% 1.83 -34.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haninge1.9

Nyköping1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HANINGE · PPG 2.12

NYKÖPING · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Haninge (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.8%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.1%

Nyköping (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haninge face Nyköping in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haninge a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Nyköping 24%, so Haninge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Haninge and 1.2 for Nyköping (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haninge are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.38 for Nyköping. This match finished 2-2.

Haninge vs Nyköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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