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Farsta vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Farsta

PPG 2.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Nacka Iliria

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-11.7%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.7%1-15.2%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-17.8%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-17.7%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.7%4+-112.0%4+-24.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.7% 58.8% 1.70 +16.8%

Draw 15.8% 24.4% 4.10 -21.1%

Away win 15.5% 26.3% 3.80 -24.7%

Over 2.5 64.2% 72.5% 1.38 -11.4%

Over 3.5 43.2% 51.3% 1.95 -15.8%

BTTS 52.7% 72.5% 1.38 -27.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 69.0% 1.45 +12.1%

Away O1.5 18.2% 44.4% 2.25 -35.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 69% / xG 3.0-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 3–0 11.4%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 4–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farsta3.0

Nacka Iliria0.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FARSTA · PPG 2.75

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 0.78

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.30 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Farsta (H) 68.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +16.8%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -21.1%

Nacka Iliria (A) 15.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farsta face Nacka Iliria in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farsta a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Nacka Iliria 16%, so Farsta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Farsta and 0.7 for Nacka Iliria (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farsta are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.78 for Nacka Iliria. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Farsta vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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