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Smedby vs Forward Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Smedby

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Forward

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.7%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.2%1-111.3%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 50.5% 1.98 -9.9%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 64.1% 1.56 -16.5%

Over 3.5 34.4% 42.0% 2.38 -18.1%

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smedby1.7

Forward1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SMEDBY · PPG 2.11

FORWARD · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Smedby (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -9.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Forward (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Smedby face Forward in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smedby a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Forward 30%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Smedby and 1.2 for Forward (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smedby are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.89 for Forward. This match finished 3-1.

Smedby vs Forward Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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