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Örebro Syrianska vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Örebro Syrianska

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Farsta

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.1% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.4%0-25.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.3%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.5%2-17.8%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 41.0% 2.44 -11.2%

Draw 27.6% 27.8% 3.60 -0.4%

Away win 36.0% 42.6% 2.35 -15.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 70.9% 1.41 -36.8%

Over 3.5 26.8% 48.3% 2.07 -26.7%

BTTS 49.1% 72.5% 1.38 -32.2%

Home O1.5 31.9% 54.3% 1.84 -41.3%

Away O1.5 32.5% 55.2% 1.81 -41.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Örebro Syrianska1.2

Farsta1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ÖREBRO SYRIANSKA · PPG 1.75

FARSTA · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Örebro Syrianska (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -11.2%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.4%

Farsta (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Örebro Syrianska face Farsta in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Örebro Syrianska a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Farsta 36%, so Örebro Syrianska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Örebro Syrianska and 1.0 for Farsta (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Örebro Syrianska are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.89 for Farsta. This match finished 0-2.

Örebro Syrianska vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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