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Lindo FF vs Karlslund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Lindo FF

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Karlslund

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.4%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.3%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-17.0%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.0%4+-23.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Draw 22.5% 25.6% 3.90 -7.3%

Away win 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -8.8%

Over 2.5 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Over 3.5 39.4% 51.3% 1.95 -23.2%

BTTS 61.3% 73.5% 1.36 -16.6%

Home O1.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Away O1.5 35.6% 47.6% 2.10 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 5.1%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lindo FF2.1

Karlslund1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LINDO FF · PPG 1.12

KARLSLUND · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lindo FF (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.3%

Karlslund (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lindo FF face Karlslund in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lindo FF a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Karlslund 24%, so Lindo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lindo FF and 1.1 for Karlslund (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lindo FF are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.50 for Karlslund. This match finished 0-1.

Lindo FF vs Karlslund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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