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Fittja vs Örebro Syrianska Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Fittja

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Örebro Syrianska

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.7%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-110.5%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 44.8% 2.23 +25.1%

Draw 22.7% 29.0% 3.45 -13.0%

Away win 21.2% 40.0% 2.50 -28.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 70.4% 1.42 -24.6%

Over 3.5 31.5% 49.0% 2.04 -35.7%

BTTS 51.9% 69.4% 1.44 -25.3%

Home O1.5 56.3% 54.6% 1.83 +3.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 48.8% 2.05 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.9%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 10.5%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fittja1.9

Örebro Syrianska0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FITTJA · PPG 2.11

ÖREBRO SYRIANSKA · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fittja (H) 56.1%

ODDS 2.23 · IMPLIED 44.8% EV +25.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.0%

Örebro Syrianska (A) 21.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fittja face Örebro Syrianska in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fittja a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Örebro Syrianska 21%, so Fittja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fittja and 0.8 for Örebro Syrianska (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fittja are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.33 for Örebro Syrianska. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Fittja vs Örebro Syrianska Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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