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Forward vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Forward

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Nacka Iliria

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.40 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-11.5%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.8%1-14.8%1-21.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.5%2-17.5%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-17.8%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-018.6%4+-113.2%4+-24.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% 53.2% 1.88 +29.9%

Draw 16.4% 28.6% 3.50 -25.6%

Away win 14.5% 31.7% 3.15 -32.6%

Over 2.5 65.9% 66.7% 1.50 -1.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 44.4% 2.25 -2.1%

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.0%

H 69% / xG 3.1-0.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 1–1 4.8%

#4 4–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward3.1

Nacka Iliria0.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD · PPG 2.38

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.40 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forward (H) 69.1%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +29.9%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -25.6%

Nacka Iliria (A) 14.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward face Nacka Iliria in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Nacka Iliria 14%, so Forward are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Forward and 0.7 for Nacka Iliria (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.50 for Nacka Iliria. This match finished 0-1.

Forward vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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