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Sleipner vs Eker Örebro Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Sleipner

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Eker Örebro

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.2%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.7%1-14.0%1-21.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.0%2-16.9%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-17.9%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.1%4+-116.4%4+-27.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 69.0% 1.45 +10.5%

Draw 15.6% 22.2% 4.50 -17.9%

Away win 8.2% 19.6% 5.10 -34.9%

Over 2.5 68.2% 76.9% 1.30 -11.3%

Over 3.5 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

BTTS 52.7% 71.4% 1.40 -26.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 76.9% 1.30 +0.5%

Away O1.5 24.0% 40.8% 2.45 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 76% / xG 3.4-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.2%

#2 2–0 8.0%

#3 4–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sleipner3.4

Eker Örebro0.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SLEIPNER · PPG 2.11

EKER ÖREBRO · PPG 0.44

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.58 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sleipner (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV +10.5%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -17.9%

Eker Örebro (A) 8.2%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sleipner face Eker Örebro in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sleipner a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Eker Örebro 8%, so Sleipner are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Sleipner and 0.9 for Eker Örebro (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sleipner are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.44 for Eker Örebro. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 7-1.

Sleipner vs Eker Örebro Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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