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Nyköping vs Rågsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Nyköping

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Rågsved

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.9%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.2%1-18.8%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.3%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-16.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 52.4% 1.91 +8.1%

Draw 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Away win 21.4% 32.3% 3.10 -20.2%

Over 2.5 59.9% 72.5% 1.38 -17.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 51.8% 1.93 -27.6%

BTTS 55.0% 75.2% 1.33 -26.9%

Home O1.5 65.8% 65.4% 1.53 +0.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 51.3% 1.95 -29.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nyköping2.2

Rågsved1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NYKÖPING · PPG 2.33

RÅGSVED · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nyköping (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +8.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

Rågsved (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nyköping face Rågsved in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nyköping a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Rågsved 21%, so Nyköping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Nyköping and 1.0 for Rågsved (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nyköping are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Rågsved. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Nyköping vs Rågsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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