Cerro Porteno vs S. Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura Apertura - 18 Estadio General Pablo Rojas· Asuncion Friday, April 24, 2026 23:00

Cerro Porteno PPG 2.00

1-1 HIT CS4

S. Ameliano PPG 1.88

Home· -2.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Porteno face S. Ameliano in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Porteno a 56% chance, the draw 28% and S. Ameliano 16%, so Cerro Porteno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cerro Porteno and 0.6 for S. Ameliano (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Porteno are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.88 for S. Ameliano. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.1%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -2.9%

Draw 27.8%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -6.9%

Away 16.1%

Odds: 4.60 EV: -25.9%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 31.7% Odds: 2.15 -31.9%

Over 3.5 13.9% Odds: 3.95 -45.1%

BTTS 33.6% Odds: 1.95 -34.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✔

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Cerro Porteno

1.38

S. Ameliano

0.60

Model SuggestionHome -2.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -2.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 16.7%

Bet Hit 56% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.88)