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Cerro Porteno vs S. Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 18 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 23:00

Cerro Porteno

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

S. Ameliano

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-18.3%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-111.4%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-17.9%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-13.6%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 57.8% 1.73 -2.9%

Draw 27.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.9%

Away win 16.1% 21.7% 4.60 -25.9%

Over 2.5 31.7% 46.5% 2.15 -31.9%

Over 3.5 13.9% 25.3% 3.95 -45.1%

BTTS 33.6% 51.3% 1.95 -34.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.6%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.1%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 13.2%

#4 1–1✓ 11.4%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Porteno1.4

S. Ameliano0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 2.00

S. AMELIANO · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Porteno (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -2.9%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.9%

S. Ameliano (A) 16.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Porteno face S. Ameliano in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Porteno a 56% chance, the draw 28% and S. Ameliano 16%, so Cerro Porteno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cerro Porteno and 0.6 for S. Ameliano (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Porteno are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.88 for S. Ameliano. This match finished 1-1.

Cerro Porteno vs S. Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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