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Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

UPCOMING

Železničar Pančevo

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.1%0-26.4%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.2%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-17.8%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 35.0% 2.86 +4.7%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Away win 36.1% 44.6% 2.24 -19.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.6% 1.83 -7.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 33.0% 39.2% 2.55 -15.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 46.5% 2.15 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novi Pazar1.2

Železničar Pančevo1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.65

ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Novi Pazar (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +4.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Železničar Pančevo (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novi Pazar face Železničar Pančevo in Serbia - Super Liga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novi Pazar a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Železničar Pančevo 36%, so Novi Pazar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Novi Pazar and 1.2 for Železničar Pančevo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novi Pazar are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.06 for Železničar Pančevo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.5%.

Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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