Today / Germany - Frauen Bundesliga / Union Berlin W vs Bayern Munich W

Union Berlin W vs Bayern Munich W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:20

Union Berlin W

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Bayern Munich W

PPG 2.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 92.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-17.1%0-29.0%0-37.6%0-4+8.8%1 1-02.9%1-17.4%1-29.4%1-37.9%1-4+9.2%2 2-01.5%2-13.8%2-24.9%2-34.1%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.7%3-31.4%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 5.3% 19.00 +91.6%

Draw 19.4% 12.5% 8.00 +33.1%

Away win 67.3% 92.6% 1.08 -27.3%

Over 2.5 65.8% 80.0% 1.25 -17.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 58.8% 1.70 -26.1%

BTTS 61.0% 47.6% 2.10 +28.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 21.7% 4.60 +40.8%

Away O1.5 65.4% 85.5% 1.17 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob61.0%

A 67% / xG 1.0-2.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 0–2 9.0%

#3 1–1 7.4%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Berlin W1.0

Bayern Munich W2.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION BERLIN W · PPG 1.27

BAYERN MUNICH W · PPG 2.48

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.49 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Berlin W (H) 13.3%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +91.6%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +33.1%

Bayern Munich W (A) 67.3%

ODDS 1.08 · IMPLIED 92.6% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin W face Bayern Munich W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin W a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Bayern Munich W 67%, so Bayern Munich W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Union Berlin W and 2.5 for Bayern Munich W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin W are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 2.48 for Bayern Munich W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +129.7%. This match finished 1-4.

Union Berlin W vs Bayern Munich W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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