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Nürnberg W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Nürnberg W

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

2 – 8

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

VfL Wolfsburg W

PPG 1.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.3%0-25.6%0-34.9%0-4+5.9%1 1-02.5%1-16.4%1-28.4%1-37.3%1-4+8.9%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.3%2-35.5%2-4+6.7%3 3-00.9%3-12.4%3-23.1%3-32.7%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% 10.5% 9.50 +75.7%

Draw 19.6% 18.2% 5.50 +4.7%

Away win 56.6% 82.0% 1.22 -30.9%

Over 2.5 68.7% 80.0% 1.25 -14.1%

Over 3.5 48.0% 57.8% 1.73 -17.0%

BTTS 63.2% 62.5% 1.60 +1.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 27.3% 3.66 +46.4%

Away O1.5 65.4% 86.2% 1.16 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-8

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.2%

A 57% / xG 1.5-2.6 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 1–3 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 2–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nürnberg W1.5

VfL Wolfsburg W2.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NÜRNBERG W · PPG 1.17

VFL WOLFSBURG W · PPG 1.97

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.11 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Nürnberg W (H) 23.8%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +75.7%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +4.7%

VfL Wolfsburg W (A) 56.6%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nürnberg W face VfL Wolfsburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nürnberg W a 24% chance, the draw 20% and VfL Wolfsburg W 57%, so VfL Wolfsburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nürnberg W and 2.6 for VfL Wolfsburg W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nürnberg W are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.97 for VfL Wolfsburg W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +117.3%. This match finished 2-8.

Nürnberg W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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