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Bregalnica Štip vs Shkëndija Haraçinë Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:30

Bregalnica Štip

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

UPCOMING

Shkëndija Haraçinë

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.1%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.6%1-110.9%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.8%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 57.8% 1.73 -19.4%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 29.3% 25.0% 4.00 +10.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 35.6% 2.81 +2.3%

BTTS 57.2% 58.8% 1.70 -2.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.4% 2.99 -0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.2%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.2%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bregalnica Štip1.8

Shkëndija Haraçinë1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BREGALNICA ŠTIP · PPG 1.93

SHKËNDIJA HARAÇINË · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bregalnica Štip (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -19.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Shkëndija Haraçinë (A) 29.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bregalnica Štip face Shkëndija Haraçinë in Macedonia - First League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bregalnica Štip a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Shkëndija Haraçinë 29%, so Bregalnica Štip are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bregalnica Štip and 1.1 for Shkëndija Haraçinë (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bregalnica Štip are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.69 for Shkëndija Haraçinë. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.3%.

Bregalnica Štip vs Shkëndija Haraçinë Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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