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Struga vs Sileks Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Matchday 29 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 11:00

Struga

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sileks

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 54% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+12.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.5%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.1%1-111.2%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.6%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Draw 28.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.0%

Away win 25.4% 25.3% 3.95 +0.3%

Over 2.5 58.9% 52.4% 1.91 +12.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Struga1.7

Sileks1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STRUGA · PPG 1.86

SILEKS · PPG 1.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.77)

Win probability 1X2

Struga (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -16.7%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.0%

Sileks (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Struga face Sileks in Macedonia - First League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Struga a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Sileks 25%, so Struga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Struga and 1.1 for Sileks (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Struga are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.77 for Sileks. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Struga vs Sileks Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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