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Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:15

Kapaz

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

UPCOMING

Şamaxı FK

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-112.7%0-26.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.1%2-17.2%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 37.7% 2.65 -1.4%

Draw 32.4% 34.5% 2.90 -6.0%

Away win 30.4% 38.2% 2.62 -20.3%

Over 2.5 40.6% 40.8% 2.45 -0.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 34.5% 2.90 -10.7%

Away O1.5 30.4% 34.7% 2.88 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapaz1.1

Şamaxı FK1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPAZ · PPG 1.38

ŞAMAXI FK · PPG 1.03

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kapaz (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -1.4%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.0%

Şamaxı FK (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapaz face Şamaxı FK in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapaz a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Şamaxı FK 30%, so Kapaz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kapaz and 1.0 for Şamaxı FK (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapaz are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.03 for Şamaxı FK. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +14.3%.

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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