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Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Sabah FA

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Sumqayıt

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.8%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.2%1-18.5%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.3%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.0%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 71.4% 1.40 -12.4%

Draw 21.8% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Away win 15.6% 16.7% 6.00 -3.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 65.4% 1.53 -17.5%

Over 3.5 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

BTTS 49.1% 57.8% 1.73 -15.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Away O1.5 22.6% 30.8% 3.25 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 63% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabah FA2.3

Sumqayıt0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SABAH FA · PPG 2.09

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sabah FA (H) 62.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -12.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Sumqayıt (A) 15.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabah FA face Sumqayıt in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabah FA a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Sumqayıt 16%, so Sabah FA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sabah FA and 0.8 for Sumqayıt (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabah FA are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.25 for Sumqayıt. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.6%.

Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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