Today / Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa / Qarabag vs Kapaz

Qarabag vs Kapaz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Qarabag

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Kapaz

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.6%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.7%1-16.8%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-18.7%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-17.5%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-19.0%4+-23.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 83.3% 1.20 -15.5%

Draw 21.2% 17.2% 5.80 +13.8%

Away win 8.4% 8.3% 12.00 +0.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 75.2% 1.33 -13.4%

Away O1.5 17.9% 20.0% 5.00 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 70% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 3–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qarabag2.6

Kapaz0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

QARABAG · PPG 2.09

KAPAZ · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.89 for Home, form 2.09 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Qarabag (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -15.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +13.8%

Kapaz (A) 8.4%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qarabag face Kapaz in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qarabag a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Kapaz 8%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Qarabag and 0.7 for Kapaz (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qarabag are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.88 for Kapaz. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.6%.

Qarabag vs Kapaz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Predictions