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Cucuta vs Junior Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 18 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 21:00

Cucuta

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Junior

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+22.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.3%0-24.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.4%1-19.3%1-28.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.8%3-24.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.2%4+-22.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 33.9% 2.95 +16.8%

Draw 22.3% 29.4% 3.40 -24.2%

Away win 38.1% 43.9% 2.28 -13.1%

Over 2.5 67.8% 50.0% 2.00 +35.6%

Over 3.5 46.2% 28.2% 3.55 +64.0%

BTTS 68.2% 55.6% 1.80 +22.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.2%

H 40% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.3%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cucuta1.8

Junior1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.8% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CUCUTA · PPG 1.38

JUNIOR · PPG 1.88

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.38) vs Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Cucuta (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +16.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -24.2%

Junior (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cucuta face Junior in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cucuta a 40% chance, the draw 22% and Junior 38%, so Cucuta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cucuta and 1.7 for Junior (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cucuta are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.88 for Junior. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +64.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Cucuta vs Junior Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions