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Hegelmann II vs FA Šiauliai II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 23 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Hegelmann II

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

UPCOMING

FA Šiauliai II

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.6%0-23.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.3%1-19.4%1-26.1%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.0%3-16.5%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 46.5% 2.15 +9.9%

Draw 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

Away win 27.0% 37.0% 2.70 -16.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 50.5% 1.98 -19.8%

BTTS 61.5% — — —

Home O1.5 57.6% 60.6% 1.65 -5.0%

Away O1.5 38.8% 53.8% 1.86 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.1%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann II2.0

FA Šiauliai II1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN II · PPG 1.09

FA ŠIAULIAI II · PPG 0.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann II (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +9.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.5%

FA Šiauliai II (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann II face FA Šiauliai II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann II a 51% chance, the draw 22% and FA Šiauliai II 27%, so Hegelmann II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hegelmann II and 1.3 for FA Šiauliai II (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann II are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.45 for FA Šiauliai II.

Hegelmann II vs FA Šiauliai II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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