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Nacional vs D. Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 18 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 20:45

Nacional

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Recoleta

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-19.8%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.7%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 56.8% 1.76 +10.7%

Draw 20.8% 32.8% 3.05 -36.6%

Away win 16.3% 19.2% 5.20 -15.2%

Over 2.5 56.1% 50.0% 2.00 +12.2%

Over 3.5 33.7% 29.4% 3.40 +14.6%

BTTS 52.0% 55.6% 1.80 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.0%

H 63% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 2–1✓ 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional2.0

D. Recoleta0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 1.88

D. RECOLETA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=62.9%

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV +10.7%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -36.6%

D. Recoleta (A) 16.3%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face D. Recoleta in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 63% chance, the draw 21% and D. Recoleta 16%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Nacional and 0.9 for D. Recoleta (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.88 for D. Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Nacional vs D. Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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