Today / Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Cacereno vs Guadalajara

Cacereno vs Guadalajara Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 19:15

Cacereno

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Guadalajara

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.5%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.8%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 44.1% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 45.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.8%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 1–1✓ 11.8%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cacereno1.6

Guadalajara0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CACERENO · PPG 1.06

GUADALAJARA · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Cacereno (H) 54.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guadalajara (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cacereno face Guadalajara in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cacereno a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Guadalajara 20%, so Cacereno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cacereno and 0.9 for Guadalajara (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cacereno are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.81 for Guadalajara. This match finished 1-1.

Cacereno vs Guadalajara Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions