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Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:30

Kudrivka

PPG 1.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

Obolon'-Brovar

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.3%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.6%1-112.8%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.8%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 32.3% 3.10 +39.8%

Draw 26.9% 34.5% 2.90 -13.2%

Away win 28.0% 42.0% 2.38 -20.0%

Over 2.5 49.9% 41.3% 2.42 +20.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.7% 4.40 +15.8%

BTTS 53.1% 50.0% 2.00 +6.2%

Home O1.5 37.9% 30.1% 3.32 +25.8%

Away O1.5 31.0% 37.2% 2.69 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kudrivka1.4

Obolon'-Brovar1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KUDRIVKA · PPG 1.46

OBOLON'-BROVAR · PPG 0.98

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kudrivka (H) 45.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +39.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.2%

Obolon'-Brovar (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kudrivka face Obolon'-Brovar in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kudrivka a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Obolon'-Brovar 28%, so Kudrivka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kudrivka and 1.0 for Obolon'-Brovar (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kudrivka are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.98 for Obolon'-Brovar. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +28.6%.

Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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