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Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 15:00

Karpaty

PPG 1.30 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

LNZ Cherkasy

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-112.2%0-26.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.5%2-17.5%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.7%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 35.7% 2.80 +14.0%

Draw 29.1% 33.9% 2.95 -8.5%

Away win 30.2% 40.8% 2.45 -26.0%

Over 2.5 43.4% 37.7% 2.65 +15.0%

Over 3.5 22.5% 22.2% 4.50 +0.8%

BTTS 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 30.8% 3.25 -1.8%

Away O1.5 29.1% 33.9% 2.95 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 41% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karpaty1.1

LNZ Cherkasy1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KARPATY · PPG 1.30

LNZ CHERKASY · PPG 1.68

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karpaty (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +14.0%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.5%

LNZ Cherkasy (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karpaty face LNZ Cherkasy in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karpaty a 41% chance, the draw 29% and LNZ Cherkasy 30%, so Karpaty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Karpaty and 1.0 for LNZ Cherkasy (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karpaty are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.68 for LNZ Cherkasy. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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