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Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 13 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 19:00

Derry City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.7%0-27.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.5%1-112.7%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.7%2-17.6%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 31.7% 3.15 +4.3%

Draw 26.7% 31.7% 3.15 -15.9%

Away win 40.2% 43.9% 2.28 -8.3%

Over 2.5 46.3% 44.4% 2.25 +4.2%

Over 3.5 24.8% 23.8% 4.20 +4.2%

BTTS 51.3% 54.1% 1.85 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.3%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 10.7%

#3 1–0✓ 9.5%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.2

Shamrock Rovers1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.33

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 33.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +4.3%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -15.9%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 40.2%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 33% chance, the draw 27% and Shamrock Rovers 40%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Derry City and 1.3 for Shamrock Rovers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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