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Avellino vs Bari Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 19:00

Avellino

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bari

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+23.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.7%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-19.6%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-16.7%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.1% 52.6% 1.90 +23.7%

Draw 20.3% 29.4% 3.40 -31.0%

Away win 14.6% 25.0% 4.00 -41.6%

Over 2.5 55.0% 47.6% 2.10 +15.5%

Over 3.5 32.6% 26.3% 3.80 +23.9%

BTTS 49.6% 54.1% 1.85 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 65% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 55% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.6%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avellino2.0

Bari0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AVELLINO · PPG 1.53

BARI · PPG 0.65

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.53), Away POOR (0.65) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Avellino (H) 65.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +23.7%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -31.0%

Bari (A) 14.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -41.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avellino face Bari in Italy - Serie B on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avellino a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Bari 15%, so Avellino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Avellino and 0.8 for Bari (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avellino are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.65 for Bari. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Avellino vs Bari Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions