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MOIK vs Şahdağ Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Matchday 1 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 13:00

MOIK

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Şahdağ

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.1%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.5%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.0%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 44.4% 2.25 +4.6%

Draw 24.2% 30.8% 3.25 -12.8%

Away win 29.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

Over 2.5 55.9% 48.8% 2.05 +14.6%

Over 3.5 34.8% 28.6% 3.50 +21.8%

BTTS 57.9% 57.1% 1.75 +1.3%

Home O1.5 48.1% 44.4% 2.25 +8.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MOIK1.6

Şahdağ1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MOIK · PPG 1.62

ŞAHDAĞ · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

MOIK (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.8%

Şahdağ (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

MOIK face Şahdağ in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MOIK a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Şahdağ 29%, so MOIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for MOIK and 1.2 for Şahdağ (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MOIK are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.45 for Şahdağ. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.8%.

MOIK vs Şahdağ Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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