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IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

IFK Goteborg

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

IF Elfsborg

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.2%0-28.1%0-34.3%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.3%2-16.8%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

Draw 25.3% 30.8% 3.25 -10.7%

Away win 45.8% 40.8% 2.45 +12.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 30.8% 45.5% 2.20 -32.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 45.5% 2.20 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–2 8.1%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Goteborg1.2

IF Elfsborg1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 1.38

IF ELFSBORG · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Goteborg (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.6%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.7%

IF Elfsborg (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Goteborg face IF Elfsborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Goteborg a 29% chance, the draw 25% and IF Elfsborg 46%, so IF Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for IFK Goteborg and 1.6 for IF Elfsborg (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.50 for IF Elfsborg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.0%. This match finished 1-1.

IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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