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Finn Harps vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:45

Finn Harps

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Athlone Town

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+34.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.0%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-110.8%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-15.8%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 45.0% 2.22 +34.1%

Draw 22.8% 29.9% 3.35 -23.6%

Away win 16.8% 31.7% 3.15 -47.1%

Over 2.5 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Over 3.5 26.6% 29.0% 3.45 -8.2%

BTTS 46.6% 57.8% 1.73 -19.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.6%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.2%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps1.8

Athlone Town0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.20

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 60.4%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +34.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -23.6%

Athlone Town (A) 16.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -47.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Athlone Town 17%, so Finn Harps are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Finn Harps and 0.8 for Athlone Town (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.60 for Athlone Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Finn Harps vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions