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Finn Harps vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Ireland - First Division logo Ireland flag Ireland - First Division Regular Season - 12 Finn Park· Ballybofey Friday, April 24, 2026 18:45
Finn Harps logo Finn Harps PPG 1.20
1-2 MISS
Athlone Town logo Athlone Town PPG 0.60
Home· +34.1% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Athlone Town 17%, so Finn Harps are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Finn Harps and 0.8 for Athlone Town (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.60 for Athlone Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 60.4%
Odds: 2.22 EV: +34.1%
Draw 22.8%
Odds: 3.35 EV: -23.6%
Away 16.8%
Odds: 3.15 EV: -47.1%
Model lean: Home
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.4% Odds: 2.00 -3.2%
Over 3.5 26.6% Odds: 3.45 -8.2%
BTTS 46.6% Odds: 1.73 -19.4%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 2-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Finn Harps
1.79
Athlone Town
0.82

Model Suggestion

Home +34.1% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%
O2.5/Under 43%
BTTS/No 43%
Score Hit 41%
ROI -14.2%
Bet Hit 33% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.60)

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