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St. Patricks vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:45

St. Patricks

PPG 2.17 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Bohemians

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-110.6%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.7%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-16.5%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.4%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 46.5% 2.15 +4.9%

Draw 32.5% 32.3% 3.10 +0.8%

Away win 18.7% 28.6% 3.50 -34.5%

Over 2.5 23.5% 43.5% 2.30 -46.0%

Over 3.5 8.9% 23.1% 4.33 -61.5%

BTTS 28.8% 51.3% 1.95 -43.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob28.8%

H 49% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.8%

#2 0–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Patricks1.1

Bohemians0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.5% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 2.17

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

St. Patricks (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +4.9%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.8%

Bohemians (A) 18.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Patricks face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Patricks a 49% chance, the draw 33% and Bohemians 19%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for St. Patricks and 0.6 for Bohemians (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Patricks are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.83 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 3-1.

St. Patricks vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions