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Shelbourne vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 13 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:45

Shelbourne

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+36.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.0%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.9%1-18.8%1-24.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.2%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-16.7%4+-23.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.3% 59.9% 1.67 +4.0%

Draw 19.6% 27.8% 3.60 -29.4%

Away win 18.1% 19.0% 5.25 -5.0%

Over 2.5 64.8% 47.6% 2.10 +36.1%

Over 3.5 42.8% 26.7% 3.75 +60.5%

BTTS 60.0% 51.3% 1.95 +17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 62% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne2.2

Drogheda Utd1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 0.50

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

53%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 62.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +4.0%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -29.4%

Drogheda Utd (A) 18.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face Drogheda Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Drogheda Utd 18%, so Shelbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Shelbourne and 1.1 for Drogheda Utd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Drogheda Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.5%. This match finished 3-4.

Shelbourne vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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