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Napoli vs Cremonese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:45

Napoli

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cremonese

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Home 76% chance

Model probability 75.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-13.5%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.8%1-17.5%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.8%2-18.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.9%3-15.6%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-14.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.9% 75.8% 1.32 +0.2%

Draw 17.1% 21.1% 4.75 -18.8%

Away win 7.0% 10.2% 9.80 -31.4%

Over 2.5 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Over 3.5 26.3% 30.8% 3.25 -14.5%

BTTS 33.2% 43.5% 2.30 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob33.2%

H 76% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 3–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napoli2.1

Cremonese0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPOLI · PPG 2.31

CREMONESE · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

76%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.31), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Napoli (H) 75.9%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV +0.2%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -18.8%

Cremonese (A) 7.0%

ODDS 9.80 · IMPLIED 10.2% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napoli face Cremonese in Italy - Serie A on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napoli a 76% chance, the draw 17% and Cremonese 7%, so Napoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Napoli and 0.5 for Cremonese (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napoli are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.88 for Cremonese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Napoli vs Cremonese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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