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Maribor vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:15

Maribor

PPG 2.12 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Koper

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-17.9%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-112.1%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.8%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 52.4% 1.91 -8.1%

Draw 26.7% 27.0% 3.70 -0.7%

Away win 25.3% 29.9% 3.35 -9.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 62.5% 1.60 -19.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 39.2% 2.55 -15.9%

BTTS 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 56.5% 1.77 -19.6%

Away O1.5 27.7% 40.8% 2.45 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 2–0✓ 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maribor1.5

Koper0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIBOR · PPG 2.12

KOPER · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maribor (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -8.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.7%

Koper (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maribor face Koper in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maribor a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Koper 25%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maribor and 0.9 for Koper (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maribor are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.71 for Koper. This match finished 2-0.

Maribor vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions