Today / Bosnia - Premijer Liga / Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina

Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 16:00

Velež

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

UPCOMING

Radnik Bijeljina

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.9%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.3%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 22.6% 24.4% 4.10 -4.4%

Over 2.5 51.4% 45.5% 2.20 +13.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.8% 4.20 +32.7%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 48.1% 47.6% 2.10 +1.0%

Away O1.5 21.7% 26.0% 3.85 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 11.3%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velež1.6

Radnik Bijeljina0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VELEŽ · PPG 1.87

RADNIK BIJELJINA · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Velež (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

Radnik Bijeljina (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velež face Radnik Bijeljina in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velež a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Radnik Bijeljina 23%, so Velež are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Velež and 0.8 for Radnik Bijeljina (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velež are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.75 for Radnik Bijeljina. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.7%.

Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bosnia - Premijer Liga Predictions